About this site
Your FIRE Number is an independent, free project. It has no ads, sponsors or affiliate links, and isn’t connected to any bank, brokerage or loan servicer. Everything runs in your browser, and the numbers you enter are never sent to us (see Privacy).
The goal is to answer real early-retirement questions with the details that change the answer: taxes, health insurance, access to retirement accounts and bad market timing. These are estimates for planning, not financial, tax or legal advice.
Taxes
- Federal income tax: 2026 brackets and standard deduction ($16,100 single, $32,200 married filing jointly) from IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32. Includes the qualified business income deduction for self-employed income and the $2,200 child tax credit.
- Payroll and self-employment tax: 6.2% Social Security up to the $184,500 wage base, 1.45% Medicare, and the 0.9% additional Medicare tax. Self-employed users pay both halves, with half deductible.
- Contribution limits: 401(k) $24,500, IRA $7,500, catch-ups for 50+ and the higher 60–63 catch-up, and the $72,000 total limit, from IRS Notice 2025-67. HSA limits are $4,400 self-only and $8,750 family.
- State tax: a single flat rate you choose, applied to AGI. Real state taxes have brackets, credits and exemptions, so treat it as an approximation.
- In retirement: pre-tax withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income, long-term gains get the 0% rate up to its 2026 limit, and Roth and HSA money is tax-free. Brackets are assumed to rise with inflation.
Investment returns and inflation
- Projections use a single expected return for your mix of stocks, bonds and cash, minus your inflation setting. All results are shown in today’s dollars.
- The historical tests replay your plan through every starting year from 1928 to 2025, using annual returns for the S&P 500, 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury bonds from Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern), adjusted for inflation with the Consumer Price Index (BLS). Paths that run past 2025 wrap around to 1928.
- A plan “works” in the Coast and Barista FIRE tabs when it would have lasted in at least 95% of those historical periods.
- Past markets don’t guarantee future ones. Many forecasters expect lower stock returns over the next decade than the long-run average.
Retiring early
- Your FIRE number is the portfolio that funds your spending at your withdrawal rate, plus the extra needed to pay taxes on withdrawals and health insurance until 65.
- Health insurance before Medicare uses 2026 ACA marketplace rules from IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-25: the enhanced subsidies expired at the end of 2025, so there is no subsidy above 400% of the federal poverty line.
- The bridge to 59½ spends taxable savings and Roth contributions first, since most pre-tax money carries a 10% penalty before then.
- Social Security uses the benefit and claiming age you enter. The Social Security Trustees project the trust funds will run short around 2034, after which about 83% of scheduled benefits would be payable without changes in law.
Student loans
- Plans follow the rules in effect on October 3, 2026: RAP (from July 1, 2026), IBR, PAYE and ICR (closing July 1, 2028), the standard and tiered standard plans, and PSLF, as set by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and Federal Student Aid.
- IBR uses the 2026 HHS poverty guidelines ($15,960 plus $5,680 per person), rising with inflation. RAP’s income bands aren’t indexed.
- Forgiveness under income-driven plans is taxed as ordinary income in the year it happens, at your federal brackets plus your state rate. PSLF is tax-free.
- Payments are simulated month by month. Income is assumed to grow with inflation plus your raises, and payments use the current year’s income (real plans use your most recent tax return).
What we leave out
- Head of household filing, taxation of Social Security benefits, and the income limits on the QBI deduction for high earners.
- Itemized deductions, most tax credits, and the alternative minimum tax.
- Parent PLUS loans, spouses who both have federal loans, and Alaska and Hawaii poverty guidelines.
- Investment fees beyond what’s built into your return setting.
Keeping it current
Tax brackets, contribution limits, poverty guidelines and the historical data are updated every January when the new figures are published. Student loan rules are reviewed as they change. Calculator pages show the date they were last updated.
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